What will the goyim say?

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(כא) וְאָמַ֞ר הַדּ֣וֹר הָאַחֲר֗וֹן בְּנֵיכֶם֙ אֲשֶׁ֤ר יָק֙וּמוּ֙ מֵאַ֣חֲרֵיכֶ֔ם וְהַ֨נׇּכְרִ֔י אֲשֶׁ֥ר יָבֹ֖א מֵאֶ֣רֶץ רְחוֹקָ֑ה וְ֠רָא֠וּ אֶת־מַכּ֞וֹת הָאָ֤רֶץ הַהִוא֙ וְאֶת־תַּ֣חֲלֻאֶ֔יהָ אֲשֶׁר־חִלָּ֥ה ה' בָּֽהּ׃ (כב) גׇּפְרִ֣ית וָמֶ֘לַח֮ שְׂרֵפָ֣ה כׇל־אַרְצָהּ֒ לֹ֤א תִזָּרַע֙ וְלֹ֣א תַצְמִ֔חַ וְלֹא־יַעֲלֶ֥ה בָ֖הּ כׇּל־עֵ֑שֶׂב כְּֽמַהְפֵּכַ֞ת סְדֹ֤ם וַעֲמֹרָה֙ אַדְמָ֣ה (וצביים) [וּצְבוֹיִ֔ם] אֲשֶׁר֙ הָפַ֣ךְ ה' בְּאַפּ֖וֹ וּבַחֲמָתֽוֹ׃ (כג) וְאָֽמְרוּ֙ כׇּל־הַגּוֹיִ֔ם עַל־מֶ֨ה עָשָׂ֧ה ה' כָּ֖כָה לָאָ֣רֶץ הַזֹּ֑את מֶ֥ה חֳרִ֛י הָאַ֥ף הַגָּד֖וֹל הַזֶּֽה׃ (כד) וְאָ֣מְר֔וּ עַ֚ל אֲשֶׁ֣ר עָזְב֔וּ אֶת־בְּרִ֥ית ה' אֱלֹקֵ֣י אֲבֹתָ֑ם אֲשֶׁר֙ כָּרַ֣ת עִמָּ֔ם בְּהוֹצִיא֥וֹ אֹתָ֖ם מֵאֶ֥רֶץ מִצְרָֽיִם׃ (כה) וַיֵּלְכ֗וּ וַיַּֽעַבְדוּ֙ אֱלֹקִ֣ים אֲחֵרִ֔ים וַיִּֽשְׁתַּחֲו֖וּ לָהֶ֑ם אֱלֹקִים֙ אֲשֶׁ֣ר לֹֽא־יְדָע֔וּם וְלֹ֥א חָלַ֖ק לָהֶֽם׃ (כו) וַיִּחַר־אַ֥ף ה' בָּאָ֣רֶץ הַהִ֑וא לְהָבִ֤יא עָלֶ֙יהָ֙ אֶת־כׇּל־הַקְּלָלָ֔ה הַכְּתוּבָ֖ה בַּסֵּ֥פֶר הַזֶּֽה׃ (כז) וַיִּתְּשֵׁ֤ם ה' מֵעַ֣ל אַדְמָתָ֔ם בְּאַ֥ף וּבְחֵמָ֖ה וּבְקֶ֣צֶף גָּד֑וֹל וַיַּשְׁלִכֵ֛ם אֶל־אֶ֥רֶץ אַחֶ֖רֶת כַּיּ֥וֹם הַזֶּֽה׃ (כח) הַנִּ֨סְתָּרֹ֔ת לַה' אֱלֹקֵ֑ינוּ וְהַנִּגְלֹ֞ת לָ֤ׄנׄוּׄ וּׄלְׄבָׄנֵ֙ׄיׄנׄוּ֙ׄ עַׄד־עוֹלָ֔ם לַעֲשׂ֕וֹת אֶת־כׇּל־דִּבְרֵ֖י הַתּוֹרָ֥ה הַזֹּֽאת׃ {ס}
(21) And later generations will ask—the children who succeed you, and foreigners who come from distant lands and see the plagues and diseases that ה' has inflicted upon that land, (22) all its soil devastated by sulfur and salt, beyond sowing and producing, no grass growing in it, just like the upheaval of Sodom and Gomorrah, Admah and Zeboiim, which ה' overthrew in fierce anger— (23) all nations will ask, “Why did ה' do thus to this land? Wherefore that awful wrath?” (24) They will be told, “Because they forsook the covenant that ה', God of their ancestors, made with them upon freeing them from the land of Egypt; (25) they turned to the service of other gods and worshiped them, gods whom they had not experienced*whom they had not experienced See note at 11.28. and whom [God] had not allotted*allotted See 4.19–20. to them. (26) So ה' was incensed at that land and brought upon it all the curses recorded in this book. (27) ה' uprooted them from their soil in anger, fury, and great wrath, and cast them into another land, as is still the case.” (28) Concealed acts concern our God ה'; but with overt acts, it is for us and our children ever to apply all the provisions of this Teaching.
(כו) וָאֶתְפַּלֵּ֣ל אֶל־ה' וָאֹמַר֒ אדושם ה' אַל־תַּשְׁחֵ֤ת עַמְּךָ֙ וְנַחֲלָ֣תְךָ֔ אֲשֶׁ֥ר פָּדִ֖יתָ בְּגׇדְלֶ֑ךָ אֲשֶׁר־הוֹצֵ֥אתָ מִמִּצְרַ֖יִם בְּיָ֥ד חֲזָקָֽה׃ (כז) זְכֹר֙ לַעֲבָדֶ֔יךָ לְאַבְרָהָ֥ם לְיִצְחָ֖ק וּֽלְיַעֲקֹ֑ב אַל־תֵּ֗פֶן אֶל־קְשִׁי֙ הָעָ֣ם הַזֶּ֔ה וְאֶל־רִשְׁע֖וֹ וְאֶל־חַטָּאתֽוֹ׃ (כח) פֶּן־יֹאמְר֗וּ הָאָ֘רֶץ֮ אֲשֶׁ֣ר הוֹצֵאתָ֣נוּ מִשָּׁם֒ מִבְּלִי֙ יְכֹ֣לֶת ה' לַהֲבִיאָ֕ם אֶל־הָאָ֖רֶץ אֲשֶׁר־דִּבֶּ֣ר לָהֶ֑ם וּמִשִּׂנְאָת֣וֹ אוֹתָ֔ם הוֹצִיאָ֖ם לַהֲמִתָ֥ם בַּמִּדְבָּֽר׃
(26) I prayed to ה' and said, “O Lord ה', do not annihilate Your very own people, whom You redeemed in Your majesty and whom You freed from Egypt with a mighty hand. (27) Give thought to Your servants Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, and pay no heed to the stubbornness of this people, its wickedness, and its sinfulness. (28) Else the country from which You freed us will say, ‘It was because ה' was powerless to bring them into the land promised to them, and because of having rejected them, that [their god] brought them out to have them die in the wilderness.’
(ח) וְהַבַּ֤יִת הַזֶּה֙ יִהְיֶ֣ה עֶלְי֔וֹן כׇּל־עֹבֵ֥ר עָלָ֖יו יִשֹּׁ֣ם וְשָׁרָ֑ק וְאָמְר֗וּ עַל־מֶ֨ה עָשָׂ֤ה ה' כָּ֔כָה לָאָ֥רֶץ הַזֹּ֖את וְלַבַּ֥יִת הַזֶּֽה׃ (ט) וְאָמְר֗וּ עַל֩ אֲשֶׁ֨ר עָזְב֜וּ אֶת־ה' אֱלֹהֵיהֶ֗ם אֲשֶׁ֨ר הוֹצִ֣יא אֶת־אֲבֹתָם֮ מֵאֶ֣רֶץ מִצְרַ֒יִם֒ וַֽיַּחֲזִ֙קוּ֙ בֵּאלֹקִ֣ים אֲחֵרִ֔ים (וישתחו) [וַיִּשְׁתַּחֲו֥וּ] לָהֶ֖ם וַיַּעַבְדֻ֑ם עַל־כֵּ֗ן הֵבִ֤יא ה' עֲלֵיהֶ֔ם אֵ֥ת כׇּל־הָרָעָ֖ה הַזֹּֽאת׃ {פ}
(8) And as for this House, once so exalted,eas for this House, once so exalted Targum and some other ancient versions read “and this House shall become a ruin.” everyone passing by it shall be appalled and shall hiss.fhiss An action performed at the sight of ruin to ward off a like fate from the observer; cf. note at Jer. 18.16. And when they ask, ‘Why did GOD do thus to the land and to this House?’ (9) they shall be told, ‘It is because they forsook the ETERNAL their God who freed them from the land of Egypt, and they embraced other gods and worshiped them and served them; therefore GOD has brought all this calamity upon them.’”

(ט) ויכירו כל בני עולם שהיה כל זה בחטאת ישראל על עזבם את ה' אלקיהם.

All the inhabitants of the world will understand that this [destruction] is because of the sin of Israel, when they deserted the Lord their God.

(י) וְהָיָ֗ה כִּ֤י תַגִּיד֙ לָעָ֣ם הַזֶּ֔ה אֵ֥ת כׇּל־הַדְּבָרִ֖ים הָאֵ֑לֶּה וְאָמְר֣וּ אֵלֶ֗יךָ עַל־מֶה֩ דִבֶּ֨ר ה' עָלֵ֙ינוּ֙ אֵ֣ת כׇּל־הָרָעָ֤ה הַגְּדוֹלָה֙ הַזֹּ֔את וּמֶ֤ה עֲוֺנֵ֙נוּ֙ וּמֶ֣ה חַטָּאתֵ֔נוּ אֲשֶׁ֥ר חָטָ֖אנוּ לַה' אֱלֹקֵֽינוּ׃ (יא) וְאָֽמַרְתָּ֣ אֲלֵיהֶ֗ם עַל֩ אֲשֶׁר־עָזְב֨וּ אֲבוֹתֵיכֶ֤ם אוֹתִי֙ נְאֻם־ה' וַיֵּלְכ֗וּ אַֽחֲרֵי֙ אֱלֹקִ֣ים אֲחֵרִ֔ים וַיַּעַבְד֖וּם וַיִּשְׁתַּחֲו֣וּ לָהֶ֑ם וְאֹתִ֣י עָזָ֔בוּ וְאֶת־תּוֹרָתִ֖י לֹ֥א שָׁמָֽרוּ׃
(10) And when you announce all these things to that people, and they ask you, “Why has GOD decreed upon us all this fearful evil? What is the iniquity and what the sin that we have committed against the ETERNAL our God?” (11) say to them, “Because your ancestors deserted Me—declares GOD —and followed other gods and served them and worshiped them; they deserted Me and did not keep My Instruction.

It makes much more sense for a polytheist to believe that, when Israel suffers misfortune, it is because Israel’s God is not sufficiently powerful or has rejected them, rather than believing that Israel had sinned, citing such details as the covenant God made with Israel at the exodus (Deut. 29.24). Polytheists did understand the concept of a god being angry with his people, but connecting that anger to infractions of religious law is not common.

When God Punishes Israel: What Will the Gentiles Say? Prof. Rabbi Marty Lockshin thetorah.com

Moshe Weinfeld lists the following passages as advancing the same argument: Num 14:15-16, Josh 7:7-9, Jer 14:7, Ps 25:11, 79:9-10, 109:21, and 115:1-2, and many passages in Ezekiel. Moshe Weinfeld, Deuteronomy 1-11 (Anchor Bible; New York: Doubleday, 1991), p. 416.

(טו) וְהֵמַתָּ֛ה אֶת־הָעָ֥ם הַזֶּ֖ה כְּאִ֣ישׁ אֶחָ֑ד וְאָֽמְרוּ֙ הַגּוֹיִ֔ם אֲשֶׁר־שָׁמְע֥וּ אֶֽת־שִׁמְעֲךָ֖ לֵאמֹֽר׃ (טז) מִבִּלְתִּ֞י יְכֹ֣לֶת ה' לְהָבִיא֙ אֶת־הָעָ֣ם הַזֶּ֔ה אֶל־הָאָ֖רֶץ אֲשֶׁר־נִשְׁבַּ֣ע לָהֶ֑ם וַיִּשְׁחָטֵ֖ם בַּמִּדְבָּֽר׃
(15) If then You slay this people wholesale,*wholesale Lit. “like a single participant,” i.e., without discrimination; NJPS “to a man,” trad. “as one man.” See the Dictionary under ’ish. the nations who have heard Your fame will say, (16) ‘It must be because ה' was powerless to bring that people into the land promised them on oath that [that god] slaughtered them in the wilderness.’

(ז) וַיֹּ֨אמֶר יְהוֹשֻׁ֜עַ אֲהָ֣הּ ׀ אדושם ה' לָ֠מָה הֵעֲבַ֨רְתָּ הַעֲבִ֜יר אֶת־הָעָ֤ם הַזֶּה֙ אֶת־הַיַּרְדֵּ֔ן לָתֵ֥ת אֹתָ֛נוּ בְּיַ֥ד הָאֱמֹרִ֖י לְהַאֲבִידֵ֑נוּ וְלוּ֙ הוֹאַ֣לְנוּ וַנֵּ֔שֶׁב בְּעֵ֖בֶר הַיַּרְדֵּֽן׃ (ח) בִּ֖י אדושם מָ֣ה אֹמַ֔ר אַ֠חֲרֵ֠י אֲשֶׁ֨ר הָפַ֧ךְ יִשְׂרָאֵ֛ל עֹ֖רֶף לִפְנֵ֥י אֹיְבָֽיו׃ (ט) וְיִשְׁמְע֣וּ הַֽכְּנַעֲנִ֗י וְכֹל֙ יֹשְׁבֵ֣י הָאָ֔רֶץ וְנָסַ֣בּוּ עָלֵ֔ינוּ וְהִכְרִ֥יתוּ אֶת־שְׁמֵ֖נוּ מִן־הָאָ֑רֶץ וּמַֽה־תַּעֲשֵׂ֖ה לְשִׁמְךָ֥ הַגָּדֽוֹל׃

(7) “Ah, my Sovereign GOD !” cried Joshua. “Why did You lead this people across the Jordan only to deliver us into the hands of the Amorites, to be destroyed by them? If only we had been content to remain on the other side of the Jordan! (8) O my Sovereign, what can I say after Israel has turned tail before its enemies? (9) When the Canaanites and all the inhabitants of the land hear of this, they will turn upon us and wipe out our very name from the earth. And what will You do about Your great name?

(ז) אִם־עֲוֺנֵ֙ינוּ֙ עָ֣נוּ בָ֔נוּ ה' עֲשֵׂ֖ה לְמַ֣עַן שְׁמֶ֑ךָ כִּי־רַבּ֥וּ מְשׁוּבֹתֵ֖ינוּ לְךָ֥ חָטָֽאנוּ׃
(7) Though our iniquities testify against us,
Act, O ETERNAL One, for the sake of Your name;
Though our rebellions are many
And we have sinned against You.
(יא) לְמַֽעַן־שִׁמְךָ֥ ה' וְֽסָלַחְתָּ֥ לַ֝עֲוֺנִ֗י כִּ֣י רַב־הֽוּא׃
(11) As befits Your name, O LORD,
pardon my iniquity though it be great.
(ט) עׇזְרֵ֤נוּ ׀ אֱלֹ֘קֵ֤י יִשְׁעֵ֗נוּ עַֽל־דְּבַ֥ר כְּבֽוֹד־שְׁמֶ֑ךָ וְהַצִּילֵ֥נוּ וְכַפֵּ֥ר עַל־חַ֝טֹּאתֵ֗ינוּ לְמַ֣עַן שְׁמֶֽךָ׃ (י) לָ֤מָּה ׀ יֹאמְר֣וּ הַגּוֹיִם֮ אַיֵּ֢ה אֱֽלֹהֵ֫יהֶ֥ם יִוָּדַ֣ע (בגיים) [בַּגּוֹיִ֣ם] לְעֵינֵ֑ינוּ נִ֝קְמַ֗ת דַּֽם־עֲבָדֶ֥יךָ הַשָּׁפֽוּךְ׃
(9) Help us, O God, our deliverer,
for the sake of the glory of Your name.
Save us and forgive our sin,
for the sake of Your name.
(10) Let the nations not say, “Where is their God?”
Before our eyes let it be known among the nations
that You avenge the spilled blood of Your servants.
(כא) וְאַתָּ֤ה ׀ ה' אדושם עֲֽשֵׂה־אִ֭תִּי לְמַ֣עַן שְׁמֶ֑ךָ כִּי־ט֥וֹב חַ֝סְדְּךָ֗ הַצִּילֵֽנִי׃
(21) Now You, O God, my Lord,
act on my behalf as befits Your name.
Good and faithful as You are, save me.
(א) לֹ֤א לָ֥נוּ ה' לֹ֫א־לָ֥נוּ כִּֽי־לְ֭שִׁמְךָ תֵּ֣ן כָּב֑וֹד עַל־חַ֝סְדְּךָ֗ עַל־אֲמִתֶּֽךָ׃ (ב) לָ֭מָּה יֹאמְר֣וּ הַגּוֹיִ֑ם אַיֵּה־נָ֝֗א אֱלֹהֵיהֶֽם׃
(1) Not to us, O LORD, not to us
but to Your name bring glory
for the sake of Your love and Your faithfulness.
(2) Let the nations not say,
“Where, now, is their God?”
אָבִֽינוּ מַלְכֵּֽנוּ עֲשֵׂה עִמָּֽנוּ לְמַֽעַן שְׁמֶֽךָ:
Our Father, our King! deal with us [kindly] for the sake of Your Name.
אָבִֽינוּ מַלְכֵּֽנוּ עֲשֵׂה לְמַעַנְךָ אִם לֹא לְמַעֲנֵֽנוּ:
Our Father, our King! do it for Your sake if not for ours.
אָבִֽינוּ מַלְכֵּֽנוּ עֲשֵׂה לְמַעַנְךָ וְהוֹשִׁיעֵֽנוּ:
Our Father, our King! do it for Your sake and deliver us.
אָבִֽינוּ מַלְכֵּֽנוּ עֲשֵׂה לְמַֽעַן שִׁמְךָ הַגָּדוֹל הַגִּבּוֹר וְהַנּוֹרָא שֶׁנִּקְרָא עָלֵֽינוּ:
Our Father, our King! do it for the sake of Your great, mighty, and awesome Name which is proclaimed upon us.

חֽוּסָה ה' עָלֵֽינוּ בְּרַחֲמֶֽיךָ, וְאַל תִּתְּ֒נֵֽנוּ בִּידֵי אַכְזָרִים: לָֽמָּה יֹאמְ֒רוּ הַגּוֹיִם אַיֵּה־נָא אֱלֺהֵיהֶם לְמַעַנְךָ עֲשֵׂה עִמָּֽנוּ חֶֽסֶד וְאַל תְּאַחַר: אָנָּא שׁוּב מֵחֲרוֹנְ֒ךָ וְרַחֵם סְגֻלָּה אֲשֶׁר בָּחָֽרְתָּ:

Adonoy, in Your mercy, spare us, do not discard us in the hands of cruel foes. Why should the nations say: Where now is their God? For Your sake, deal kindly with us and do not delay. We beseech You, turn from Your anger, and have compassion on the treasured people whom You have chosen.

חכמה גדולה יש כאן! שמא תאמרו והלא חטא גדול במעשה העגל הועילה תפלתו של משה וניצלנו, אף בארץ ישראל אם נחטא יועילו לנו תפלות הנביאים? אמר להם משה: לא תועיל לכם תפלות בארץ ישראל, כי עתה נתכפר לכם כדי שלא יתחלל שמו, שהרי כך התפללתי: זכור לעבדיך וגו' פן יאמרו הארץ אשר הוצאתנו משם מבלתי יכולת ה' להביאם - ולכך לא נתחייבתם בעדו מיתה, אבל לאחר שיהרוג שלושים ואחד מלכים וינחילכם את הארץ, אז יוציאכם ויגרש אתכם מן הארץ שאין כאן חילול השם לאמר לאומות מבלתי יכולת ה', אלא יאמרו הגוים, ישראל חטאו לו. כמו שמפורש באתם נצבים: ואמרו כל הגוים על מה עשה ה' ככה לארץ הזאת ומה חרי האף וגו', ואמרו על אשר עזבו את ברית ה' אלקי אבותם וגו' ויתשם ה' מעל אדמתם באף ובחמה ובקצף גדול וישליכם אל ארץ אחרת כיום הזה.

However, there is a profound wisdom in the sequence of the words the Torah quotes Moses as saying, one that contains an admonition to his people. ... by pre-empting an argument by the Jewish people that just as his prayers had been helpful when they were in the desert, similar prayers would be equally helpful once the people were in the Holy Land and they committed a major sin. The prophets in such days, they would argue, would surely be able to act as their interlocutors then just as Moses had done while he was alive.

The point Moses is making here is that at this time their atonement was only in order for G’d not to be perceived as being unable to fulfill His oath of bringing Avraham’s descendants to take over the land of Canaan. In other words, Israel’s pardon was for the sake of not desecrating G’d’s Holy name.

Once G’d had demonstrated that He had kept His promise, and that the people concerned had been settled in the Holy Land, as promised, His Holy name would never again be in danger of being desecrated by someone citing the arguments Moses had been able to cite while the people were still in the desert.

This is why Moses repeats again the wording of his prayer. He is telling the people that if his prayer had been heard, it was only on account of an irrefutable argument he had been able to advance, namely how the Egyptians and other nations would react to the Jewish people’s annihilation.

It follows, that if, G’d forbid the Jewish people, once settled in the Holy Land, would become guilty of similar misdemeanours as had the Canaanites, they would face both death and expulsion. On the contrary, if that were to happen, the gentile nations would not point to G’d’s inability to keep them there as the cause of their misfortune, but they would correctly point to the disloyalty this people had demonstrated by eschewing the laws given to them by their G’d, the One who had driven out the Canaanites. We find this all spelled out in Deuteronomy 29,23-27.